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For attribution to spokesperson Mia Davies:
Urgent action is needed if Western Australia is to avoid a potentially devastating gas shortage as modelled in the 2025 Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) released today by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO).
AEMO made numerous refinements to its methodology in preparing the latest GSOO, including extending the forecast period from 10 to 20 years and factoring in decarbonisation and electrification pathways.
None of these has changed the reality for WA: from 2030, under every scenario modelled by AEMO, we are facing a structural shortfall of gas for domestic use that only worsens as the years go by.
If planned Perth Basin projects don’t deliver as modelled, which you have to think there is a reasonable likelihood of occurring, the shortfall could be upon us sooner.
What that is likely to mean is higher energy prices for consumers, increased volatility as the state transitions from coal-fired power, a risk that new investment goes interstate or offshore and job losses in industries that rely on affordable and reliable gas for their viability. It absolutely threatens to short circuit “Made in WA”, the Cook government’s ambitious plan to reinvigorate our domestic manufacturing sector.
The starting point for action is ensuring the social contract at the heart of WA’s domestic gas reservation policy – in its most basic form, that the big multinational LNG producers are obliged to reserve the equivalent of 15 per cent of their overseas exports for WA’s own domestic market – is met.
We know that Woodside has not fulfilled this obligation with its Pluto LNG Project, having delivered less than three per cent of production into the domestic market.
That needs to change before it is too late and the Pluto reservoirs are exhausted.
Other LNG producers similarly need to be held to account and not have the opportunity or option to short-change the WA public.
We also need Government to bring transparency to a system that has long been shrouded in secrecy.
The WA Domestic Gas Statement is a step in the right direction but relies on the producers volunteering information on domestic supply versus exports.
Refinement is needed before we can say it is giving us the complete picture.
The reality is we need new gas coming into the system to meet demand.
The current rules for retention leases covering gas reserves that have been proved up but not brought to market need tightening up.
‘Use it or lose it’ must become the mantra for Government and departments responsible for granting these leases.
As Premier Cook said in a recent media interview: “Let me just make it clear, this is Western Australian gas. WA households and businesses should benefit as a priority of accessing these reserves.”
It’s our gas. That is the heart of the matter.
